Al-Shabaab vs. Somaliland

With the recent pressure placed on Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) by terrorist organization Al-Shabaab, interest has been sparked on the effects this may have for the self-declared state of Somaliland and other regional actors. (Somaliland Times "Somalia: Conflict Will Spread Unless International Community Acts - U.S. Policymaker")

Leading up to the elections this summer in Somaliland, Al-Shabaab offered threats to the break-away region to discontinue their failed attempts at international democratic recognition and embrace Al-Shabaab's interpretation of Islamic governance in the whole of Somalia. (Somaliland Press "Al-Shabaab Warns Somaliland Voters")

Despite the ongoing threats, Somaliland successfully held democratic elections and on July 27th the new President of the as-yet-unrecognized country was sworn in amidst a flurry of congratulatory support from various members of the local and international community. (Somaliland Press "Somaliand Election Free And Fair: Observers")


Still, the threat from the rising powers of Al-Shabaab is present despite Somaliland's determination. Speculative writings from various internet sources invoke feelings of unavoidability for a final confrontation between the terrorist group and the people of the northern region. While this is largely personal opinion and slightly negative in outlook, it has basis for argument. It is hard to deny, for example, that Al-Shabaab takes an extremely anti-western-democratic stance while Somaliland continues to struggle for a successful democratic model in the eyes of the west. Meanwhile, the international community's reluctance to recognize Somaliland damages the base upon which the region stands and creates an internal instability that could prove dangerous under the wrong conditions. (Long War Journal "Shabaab Looks to the Somali North" ; Mareeg Online (commentary) "The Ultimate Fight: Somaliland vs. Al-Shabaab")

These might be valuable issues to keep an eye on for the future as the region surrounding Somalia continues to grow in importance as far as international concern for stability and security is concerned. There is no doubt that increasing international interest in the future of Somalia and the TFG under Sheikh Sharif Ahmed is going to have serious effects on Somaliland. Whether these are negative or positive effects remains to be seen.